If You’re Retiring Soon, Watch This Before Taking Social Security (Age 62 vs. 70)

Answer Box: TL;DR

When you claim Social Security can radically change how long your money lasts in retirement. In this video, Dan compares claiming at 62, 67, and 70 using the same income, assets, and spending—and shows how timing alone can move retirement success from about 78% to 88%. He explains how benefits are calculated, why delaying often increases lifetime income (especially past the breakeven age around 78), and why, in many realistic scenarios, claiming around your full retirement age (often 67) may offer the best balance between income, flexibility, and portfolio risk.

Key Takeaways

Social Security timing is a high-impact decision, not a minor checkbox.
- Two retirees with the same savings and lifestyle can have very different outcomes just based on when they claim.
- Dan’s analysis shows retirement success probabilities ranging from 78% to 88% purely from timing differences.
- That can mean the difference between scraping by and living comfortably for decades.
Benefits depend on lifetime earnings and claiming age.
- Full retirement age (FRA) for many retirees today is 67.
- Claiming at 62 (earliest age) typically reduces your benefit by about 30% versus FRA 67.
- Delaying beyond FRA earns about 8% per year in increased benefits up to age 70—after that, increases stop.
The math behind early vs. delayed claiming.
- In Dan’s example, FRA benefits are about $2,304/month for both couples.
- Pilot Pete claims at 62 and ends up with roughly $917,222 in lifetime benefits and a 78% retirement success probability.
- Chef Steve delays until 70, earns about $1,175,040 in lifetime benefits and an 85% success rate, even though he draws more heavily from investments early on.
Sometimes the “middle path” (FRA 67) wins.
- When Dan adds a third scenario where Social Security is claimed at 67, the retirement success probability jumps to about 88%.
- This balances higher Social Security income with less pressure on the investment portfolio than claiming at 62.
- It illustrates that the optimal strategy isn’t always “earliest” or “latest”—it’s personalized.
Breakeven and longevity assumptions matter.
- In the example, the breakeven age for delaying to 70 is around 78.
- If you live beyond that, delaying tends to win on lifetime dollars.
- But real life factors like health, life expectancy, existing retirement success, and portfolio strength can shift what’s best for you.
Social Security trust fund concerns are real—but not an on/off switch.
- Trustees project potential trust fund depletion around 2035.
- Even then, current estimates suggest roughly 80% of benefits might still be payable from ongoing tax revenues.
- Planning for a possible 20% benefit reduction is a prudent stress test, not a reason to panic.
Good planning beats guesswork.
- Dan uses Monte Carlo simulations to test thousands of market paths and spending outcomes.
- Claiming strategies that look similar in a spreadsheet can behave very differently when you factor in volatility, inflation, and real-life spending patterns.
- The lesson: Social Security timing should be integrated into your overall retirement income plan, not decided in isolation.

Key Moments

(00:00) – Same assets, different outcomes. Dan opens with two retirees who have identical savings and lifestyles, but very different results because they claim Social Security at different ages.
(00:25) – What this video will cover. He sets the agenda: 62 vs. 70, the impact on retirement success, and what happens if the Social Security trust fund is partially depleted.
(00:50) – How Social Security benefits are calculated. Dan explains that benefits depend on lifetime earnings and the age at which you start claiming, with FRA often at 67.
(01:18) – Reduction for early claiming & increase for delaying. He outlines the formulas: about 30% reduction at 62 vs. 67, and roughly 8% per year increase for delaying up to age 70.
(02:11) – The baseline scenario assumptions. Dan sets up his comparison: $90K income, $1M in assets, $6K/month spending, and a specific asset mix across cash, taxable accounts, and retirement accounts.
(02:44–03:09) – Pilot Pete: claims at 62. He walks through Pete’s early-claim scenario, lifetime benefits (~$917K), and a 78% Monte Carlo success rate.
(03:34–04:02) – Chef Steve: delays to 70. Dan explains how Steve relies on investments from 62–70, earns higher lifetime benefits (~$1.175M), and reaches about an 85% success rate.
(04:02–04:29) – Finding the breakeven and the true winner. He notes the breakeven age (~78) and shows that claiming at 67 can actually lead to the highest success probability (~88%).
(04:29–04:55) – Why real life is more complex. Dan reminds viewers that health, longevity, and existing plan strength can change the optimal claiming age.
(04:55–05:19) – Trust fund risk & planning for reductions. He references projections about potential trust fund depletion around 2035 and suggests planning for a 20% benefit cut.
(05:19–end) – Your choice & next steps. Dan closes by challenging viewers to be intentional about their claiming strategy and invites them to watch more content on retirement income planning.

Episode Summary

In this video, Dan tackles one of the most consequential decisions for soon-to-be retirees: when to claim Social Security. He opens with a simple but powerful scenario—two retirees with the same assets, income, and lifestyle, but different claiming ages. One files early at 62, the other waits until 70, and a third scenario at full retirement age (67) is added. Using consistent assumptions for inflation, portfolio returns, spending, and life expectancy, Dan shows how timing alone can swing retirement success probabilities from around 78% to 88%.

Dan starts by reviewing how Social Security benefits are determined. Payments are based on your lifetime earnings history and the age at which you start benefits. For most retirees today, full retirement age is 67. Claiming at 62 reduces benefits by roughly 30%, while delaying beyond FRA earns about 8% per year in credits up to age 70. He also notes that cost-of-living adjustments (COLAs) are applied annually, which can further reward those who delay.

He then introduces “Pilot Pete,” who claims at 62, and “Chef Steve,” who waits until 70. Both couples have $1 million in assets (split among cash, taxable accounts, and retirement accounts), $90,000 in income, and $6,000 in monthly spending. Pete and Sally collect lower benefits for a longer time, resulting in about $917,222 in lifetime Social Security payments and a 78% Monte Carlo success rate. Steve and Suzy rely on their portfolio from 62 to 70, but their higher eventual benefits produce roughly $1,175,040 in lifetime payments and an 85% success rate.

Interestingly, when Dan tests a third option—claiming at 67, the full retirement age—this “middle path” yields the highest probability of retirement success at around 88%. It balances higher Social Security income with reduced stress on the portfolio compared to early claiming, without requiring as many years of heavy withdrawals as the age-70 strategy. This reinforces a key message: the optimal choice is rarely just “as early as possible” or “as late as possible.” It depends on your health, longevity assumptions, existing plan strength, and comfort with portfolio risk.

Dan rounds out the discussion by addressing concerns about the Social Security trust fund. He notes projections that the trust fund could be depleted around 2035, but emphasizes that this doesn’t mean benefits drop to zero. Current estimates suggest that roughly 80% of benefits could still be paid from ongoing payroll taxes, so it’s wise to plan for a potential 20% reduction as a stress test. He closes by encouraging viewers to integrate Social Security timing into their broader retirement income strategy and to be deliberate rather than defaulting to guesswork or rules of thumb.

Full Transcript

Dan: Two retirees, same savings, same lifestyle, completely different outcomes, all because of when they claim Social Security. In this video, we’ll break down how claiming at age 62 versus age 70 can add up to thousands of dollars, and why waiting just a few extra years could boost your retirement success from 78% all the way up to 88%.

Dan: And we’ll also tackle the risks of claiming early, the cost of waiting, and what happens if the Social Security trust fund runs dry by 2035. If you’re planning your retirement, this timing decision is one that you can’t afford to get wrong.

Dan: Social Security payments depend on two factors: lifetime earnings and the age at which benefits begin. The full retirement age is typically 67 for those retiring now. And claiming early reduces benefits while delaying increases them.

Dan: At age 62, which is the earliest age to claim, benefits are reduced by 30% if the full retirement age is 67. For example, if your benefit at 67 would be $1,000 a month and you claim at 62, you’ll get $700 instead.

Dan: The reduction formula is as follows: five-ninths of 1% for each month for 36 months prior to the full retirement age and five-twelfths of 1% per month for any earlier months. On the other hand, claiming late increases benefits by 8% per year after the full retirement age up until age 70. And these increases stop at age 70.

Dan: Social Security also includes annual cost of living adjustments, which incentivizes delayed claims. To make a fair comparison, we use consistent assumptions from previous analysis. Here’s the setup. The inflation rate stays constant. Portfolio returns average 7%. And annual income for both retirees is $90,000 a year.

Dan: The benefits estimated using the Social Security Analysis quick calculator comes out at $2,304 per month at full retirement age. Both spouses are eligible for spousal benefits and the planned retirement spending is $6,000 per month. Their total assets are $1 million broken down as follows: $50,000 in cash accounts, $250,000 in non-qualified stocks and mutual funds, and $700,000 in qualified retirement accounts.

Dan: And the only difference between the two retirees is when they claim their Social Security benefits. Pilot Pete files for Social Security at age 62. His reduced monthly payment is $1,613. His wife Sally also files early, reducing her spousal benefit. Pete’s life expectancy assumption is 92, while Sally’s is 94.

Dan: Their total lifetime benefits come out to $917,222 in today’s dollars. And a Monte Carlo simulation indicates a 78% probability of retirement success. That means he likely won’t have to reduce his retirement spending.

Dan: Chef Steve, on the other hand, decides to delay claiming until age 70, and he relies solely on his investments from age 62 to 70. Despite this, his Monte Carlo simulation shows an 85% chance of success, which is significantly higher than Pete’s. And the monthly benefit at age 70 is the maximum possible amount.

Dan: Again, the life expectancy assumptions are Steve at age 92 and his wife Suzy at 94. Their total lifetime benefits add up to $1,175,040. And in this scenario, the breakeven point age is 78. After age 78, delaying creates greater long-term benefits.

Dan: But in this scenario, claiming at the full retirement age of 67 actually proves to be optimal. It leads to an 88% retirement success probability and it balances higher Social Security payments with reduced reliance on investments. Neither Pete nor Steve chose this optimal strategy and this proves the importance of strategic planning.

Dan: Now these scenarios are simplified. Real life complexities like health status, reduced life expectancy, and pre-existing retirement success levels can influence the optimal claiming decision. Social Security timing may have a marginal impact for those with a 90% plus retirement success probability.

Dan: And according to the Social Security Analysis Trustees report, the Social Security trust fund may be depleted by 2035. Even if that happens, 80% of benefits could still be payable through taxes. So, planning for a potential 20% reduction by 2035 is a smart strategy.

Dan: Social Security might feel like a simple checkbox. But when you claim it could mean the difference between scraping by and living comfortably for decades. Pete and Steve made different choices, but now you’ve seen the numbers. So, the question is, what will you choose?

Dan: If this helped you to think differently about retirement planning, hit that like button and share it with someone who’s trying to figure out their Social Security game plan. And if you want a deeper dive into retirement income strategies, we’ve got more videos coming your way, so be sure to subscribe.

Resources & Concepts Mentioned

Full Retirement Age (FRA): The age (often 67) at which you receive your full Social Security benefit based on your earnings record.
Early claiming reduction: Roughly 30% lower benefits if you claim at 62 instead of 67, using SSA’s reduction formulas.
Delayed retirement credits: About 8% per year increase in benefits for delaying beyond FRA up to age 70.
Monte Carlo simulation: A statistical method Dan uses to test retirement plans across many possible market paths and outcomes.
Social Security trust fund projections: Current projections that the trust fund could be depleted around 2035, with an estimated ~80% of benefits still funded by payroll taxes.
Retirement success probability: The chance that a plan can sustain planned spending without running out of money over the modeled lifetime.

FAQs

Is it always better to wait until age 70 to claim Social Security?

No. While delaying can increase your monthly and lifetime benefits, it’s not always the optimal choice. Health, life expectancy, portfolio strength, other income sources, and your need for cash flow all matter. In Dan’s example, claiming at full retirement age 67 actually produced the highest retirement success probability.

What is the breakeven age for delaying Social Security?

In the scenario Dan models, the breakeven age for delaying to 70 is around 78. If you live beyond that, the higher monthly benefit from delaying tends to win on lifetime dollars. Your personal breakeven will depend on your benefit amounts, inflation, spousal benefits, and health assumptions.

How does claiming early at 62 affect my benefits?

If your full retirement age is 67, claiming at 62 typically reduces your monthly benefit by about 30%. That lower payment is permanent. While you receive benefits for a longer period, you may give up valuable guaranteed income later in retirement when portfolio risk and longevity risk matter most.

Should I be worried about the Social Security trust fund running out?

It’s a valid concern, but it’s not an on/off switch. Current projections suggest that if the trust fund is depleted around 2035, ongoing payroll taxes could still cover roughly 80% of scheduled benefits. A prudent plan is to stress test your retirement assuming a potential 20% reduction, rather than assuming full benefits will disappear entirely.

How do I know which claiming age is best for me?

The right claiming age depends on your health, longevity expectations, spouse’s benefits, savings, spending level, and risk tolerance. A detailed analysis using tools like Monte Carlo simulations can help you see how 62, 67, and 70 perform across many possible market and life paths, rather than relying on rules of thumb alone.

Do I need a professional to help with Social Security timing?

You can run your own numbers using SSA resources and online calculators, but coordinating Social Security with investments, taxes, and spousal planning can get complex. Many retirees benefit from working with a planner who specializes in retirement income strategies and can integrate claiming decisions into a full plan.

Disclaimer

This video and written summary are for educational and informational purposes only and do not constitute financial, tax, or legal advice. They do not create a client relationship with Tailored Wealth or any related entity.

Social Security claiming decisions, retirement income strategies, and investment plans involve risks, assumptions, and trade-offs that depend on your specific situation. Before making any decisions, you should consult with:

A licensed financial advisor or planner
A qualified tax professional (CPA or EA)
Legal counsel, where appropriate

Any examples or probabilities mentioned are illustrative and based on specific assumptions; they are not guarantees of future results or outcomes.

Next Steps

If you’re within 10 years of retirement—or already close to claiming—consider:

Download your Social Security statement: Review your projected benefits at 62, FRA, and 70.
Map out a few scenarios: Compare how your plan looks if you claim at 62 vs. 67 vs. 70, including portfolio withdrawals.
Stress test your plan: Ask how your retirement changes if benefits are reduced by 20% around 2035.
Coordinate as a couple: If married, look at spousal benefits and survivor benefits, not just your own check.
Get a full retirement income plan: Work with a professional or use planning tools to integrate Social Security timing with investments, taxes, and spending.

Social Security is one of the few sources of guaranteed, inflation-adjusted income you’ll ever have. Treating the timing decision strategically—not casually—can give you more confidence and flexibility for the decades ahead.